BUF

Zach Metsa

Buffalo Sabres D Age 27 UFA

2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026

$775K AAV

1 Years Left

UFA Expiry

Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.

56 Value Score

56th percentile among defensemen

Verdict Low sample

Not enough games yet to value this contract

Comparable deals

See all comparable deals →

Why this verdict

Where this contract sits vs. the market

Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 613 comparable defense deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.

Pay, % of cap

← lower talent higher talent →

Cap hit $775K Market rate $2.9M +$2.1M vs. the open market

The page’s headline verdict, +$1.9M/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.

Structurally similar active deals

This contract sits in the Veteran depth region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):

Jacob Bryson D · BUF · UFA $900K +$1.6M
Dylan Coghlan D · VGK · UFA $775K +$2.0M
Conor Timmins D · BUF · UFA $2.2M +$402K
Timothy Liljegren D · SJS · UFA $3.0M −$468K
Cale Fleury D · SEA · UFA $890K +$1.7M
Jacob Moverare D · LAK · UFA $775K +$1.6M

Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.

Reading this verdict

Outlook

Aging Curve

In his peak window

Production index for defensemen. The dot marks Zach at age 27.

Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.

Full stats

Season Stats

Career xG IMPACT/60 —

Limited career 5v5 sample — a teammate-adjusted (RAPM) impact needs more ice time than this player has logged, so we don't show a point estimate yet. It appears once career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor.

Production

Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.

Season	GP	G	A	P	TOI
2025-26	43	2	4	6	11.0

On-ice & expected

On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.

Season	CF%	xG	xGF
2025-26	46.2	1.0	16.6

CF%: Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
xG: Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
xGF: On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice

Playoff track record

2 playoff games · 1 postseason

Not enough playoff games to assess.

Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.