Keaton Middleton
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Not enough games yet to value this contract
+0.02 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$1.5M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Keaton Middleton has delivered 0.02 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Nick Perbix −$784K
- Joshua Mahura +$706K
- Kyle Capobianco +$1.3M
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 613 comparable defense deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$798K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Veteran depth region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Nick Perbix $2.8M −$784K
- Joshua Mahura $908K +$706K
- Kyle Capobianco $775K +$1.3M
- Colton White $775K +$1.2M
- Philippe Myers $850K +$1.0M
- Riley Stillman $775K +$913K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
Outlook
Outlook
Future contract years valued by aging the player's current form forward against a projected salary cap — projections, not measurements. Each year carries a calibrated low–high range beneath its projected value — wider the further out the year runs and skewed downward to reflect players who leave the league. Confidence drops the further out they go, and the least predictable cases (elite players, goalies) show a wide insufficient comparable signings band rather than a precise figure. See the methodology.
This is a value trajectory, not a signing-price forecast — it does not apply the same-year discount the Free-Agent board uses for market timing and age risk. If a season below is also this player's free-agent year, expect the two pages to disagree; both are answering different questions.
| Season | Cap Hit | Proj. Fair Value | Verdict | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | $850K | $2.0M $1.4M–$3.3M | Leaning underpaid | near-term projection |
In his peak window
Production index for defensemen. The dot marks Keaton at age 28.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
No as-of track record for this deal yet — a leakage-free record needs at least two seasons graded as-of (coverage runs through 2024-25). The current-season verdict is above.
Full stats
Full stats
Limited career 5v5 sample — a teammate-adjusted (RAPM) impact needs more ice time than this player has logged, so we don't show a point estimate yet. It appears once career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.8 |
| 2024-25 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11.5 |
| 2020-21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 44.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| 2024-25 | 52.8 | 1.4 | 15.5 |
| 2020-21 | 37.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice