OTT

Claude Giroux

Ottawa Senators RW Age 38 UFA

2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026

$2.0M AAV

1 Years Left

UFA Expiry

Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.

84 Value Score

84th percentile among forwards

Verdict Full-season sample

Underpaid by ~$2.3M/yr

$1.2M $7.4M

$2.0M Cap Hit 1.9% of cap

$4.3M Fair Value 4.1% of cap

Fair-value range $2.0M – $6.6M

Pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at. It is not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.

Pay Delta +$2.3M +2.2% of cap

Career ledger 2014-15 onward · 11 seasons in window

−0.45 cap-years of deficit ≈ −$34.9M

Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Claude Giroux has cost 0.45 cap-years more than he's delivered across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.

Partial history: this counts only seasons from 2014-15 on. Claude Giroux's earlier years — including any cheap entry-level and prime seasons — are before our data window and are not in this total.

Comparable deals

See all comparable deals →

Why this verdict

Where this contract sits vs. the market

Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.

Pay, % of cap

← lower talent higher talent →

Cap hit $2.0M Market rate $4.9M +$2.9M vs. the open market

The page’s headline verdict, +$2.3M/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.

Structurally similar active deals

This contract sits in the Veteran depth region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):

Patrick Kane RW · DET · UFA $3.0M +$1.2M
Mats Zuccarello RW · MIN · UFA $4.1M +$746K
Jamie Benn LW · DAL · UFA $1.0M +$2.4M
Jordan Eberle RW · SEA · UFA $4.8M −$880K
Marcus Johansson LW · MIN · UFA $800K +$2.7M
Anze Kopitar C · LAK · UFA $7.0M −$3.9M

Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.

Career Trajectory

Reading this verdict

The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.

Outlook

Aging Curve

Production index for forwards. The dot marks Claude at age 38.

Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.

Full stats

Season Stats

Career xG IMPACT/60 0.3

On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.

Production

Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.

Season	GP	G	A	P	TOI
2025-26	82	14	35	49	16.3
2024-25	81	15	35	50	18.2
2023-24	82	21	43	64	20.1
2022-23	82	35	44	79	18.8
2021-22	75	21	44	65	19.1
2020-21	54	16	27	43	18.1
2019-20	69	21	32	53	19.0
2018-19	82	22	63	85	21.5
2017-18	82	34	68	102	20.4
2016-17	82	14	44	58	19.1
2015-16	78	22	45	67	20.5
2014-15	81	25	48	73	20.6
2013-14	82	28	58	86	20.4
2012-13	48	13	35	48	21.2
2011-12	77	28	65	93	21.5
2010-11	82	25	51	76	19.4
2009-10	82	16	31	47	16.6
2008-09	42	9	18	27	15.2

On-ice & expected

On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.

Season	CF%	xG	xGF
2025-26	54.5	17.7	80.6
2024-25	52.6	15.0	80.6
2023-24	54.3	19.4	106.6
2022-23	56.1	25.1	115.0
2021-22	55.0	20.2	100.5
2020-21	56.4	16.0	62.1
2019-20	54.6	21.0	83.8
2018-19	52.3	22.6	115.9
2017-18	52.9	22.1	113.8
2016-17	51.9	17.4	99.5
2015-16	52.2	19.2	95.7
2014-15	52.9	22.5	102.1
2013-14	53.2	23.0	104.4
2012-13	50.6	12.0	61.4
2011-12	52.6	29.8	120.4
2010-11	53.4	24.4	102.8
2009-10	50.3	—	75.9
2008-09	51.2	—	34.7

CF%: Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
xG: Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
xGF: On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice

Playoff track record

Raises his game in the playoffs (91st percentile for his caliber)

Caliber-adjusted +0.61/60 91st percentile among veteran playoff scorers

Raw vs regular season −0.19/60 2.54 playoff · 2.72 regular-season pts/60 · 54th pct

105 playoff games · 11 postseasons

Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.