Jack Drury
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Surplus value ~$1.3M/yr
Pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at. It is not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.
Realizable today Restricted (RFA) rights let the team realize about +$996K of this as signable/tradeable surplus; the rest is locked-in cost control — real value the team enjoys but can't directly cash out while he's signed this cheap.
+0.08 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$6.9M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Jack Drury has delivered 0.08 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Moderate-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Barrett Hayton −$183K
- Simon Holmstrom −$997K
- Peyton Krebs +$1.0M
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$996K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an RFA (restricted) contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Barrett Hayton $2.6M −$183K
- Simon Holmstrom $3.6M −$997K
- Peyton Krebs $1.4M +$1.0M
- Connor McMichael $2.1M +$1.2M
- Vasily Podkolzin $1.0M +$2.2M
- Cole Perfetti $3.3M −$593K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.
Outlook
Outlook
In his peak window
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Jack at age 26.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
No as-of track record for this deal yet — a leakage-free record needs at least two seasons graded as-of (coverage runs through 2024-25). The current-season verdict is above.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 14.5 |
| 2024-25 | 72 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 12.9 |
| 2023-24 | 74 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 12.3 |
| 2022-23 | 38 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10.8 |
| 2021-22 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16.0 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 58.4 | 11.2 | 47.8 |
| 2024-25 | 57.2 | 9.3 | 41.5 |
| 2023-24 | 60.9 | 12.6 | 43.3 |
| 2022-23 | 65.6 | 5.8 | 20.5 |
| 2021-22 | 52.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Playoff track record
Playoff track record
Raises his game in the playoffs (86th percentile for his caliber)
Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.