Matthew Poitras
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Underpaid ~$2.4M/yr across 2 seasons so far · current season thin
Track record Judged as-of — with only the model and data available each season — this deal has returned +$4.7M over 2 seasons through 2024-25. See how past calls held up →
+0.06 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$4.7M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Matthew Poitras has delivered 0.06 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Moderate-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Sandis Vilmanis −$40K
- Jiri Kulich −$46K
- Ryan Greene −$110K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, −$30K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an entry-level contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Sandis Vilmanis $880K −$40K
- Jiri Kulich $887K −$46K
- Ryan Greene $950K −$110K
- Ryan Winterton $828K +$12K
- Samuel Honzek $887K −$46K
- Adam Sykora $807K +$34K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Matthew at age 22.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
How this deal's surplus has accumulated — each elapsed season judged as-of,
scored with only the model and data available that season (no hindsight) and priced at the
player's age that year. This retrospective runs through 2024-25; the
current-season verdict is shown above. The waterfall builds the running total left to right; the subtotal below is a tally to date, not a forecast. Single-season value is noisy, and early-year
deficits partly reflect a lower salary cap — the same AAV was a smaller share of
the cap then — while the model tends to underprice an elite player's early-career
season, so read the early seasons with extra caution.
Partial record: part of this deal falls outside our as-of coverage, so only its 2023-24–2024-25 seasons are graded here.
Full stats
Full stats
Limited career 5v5 sample — a teammate-adjusted (RAPM) impact needs more ice time than this player has logged, so we don't show a point estimate yet. It appears once career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12.1 |
| 2024-25 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 13.1 |
| 2023-24 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 13.4 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 51.5 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| 2024-25 | 51.0 | 3.5 | 18.2 |
| 2023-24 | 49.6 | 3.6 | 22.9 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice