Mattias Ekholm

Future contract years valued by aging the player's current form forward against a projected salary cap — projections, not measurements. Each year carries a calibrated low–high range beneath its projected value — wider the further out the year runs and skewed downward to reflect players who leave the league. Confidence drops the further out they go, and the least predictable cases (elite players, goalies) show a wide insufficient comparable signings band rather than a precise figure. See the methodology.

This is a value trajectory, not a signing-price forecast — it does not apply the same-year discount the Free-Agent board uses for market timing and age risk. If a season below is also this player's free-agent year, expect the two pages to disagree; both are answering different questions.

Past his peak window

Production index for defensemen. The dot marks Mattias at age 36.

Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.

How this deal's surplus has accumulated — each elapsed season judged as-of, scored with only the model and data available that season (no hindsight) and priced at the player's age that year. This retrospective runs through 2024-25; the current-season verdict is shown above. The waterfall builds the running total left to right; the subtotal below is a tally to date, not a forecast. Single-season value is noisy, and early-year deficits partly reflect a lower salary cap — the same AAV was a smaller share of the cap then — while the model tends to underprice an elite player's early-career season, so read the early seasons with extra caution.
Partial record: part of this deal falls outside our as-of coverage, so only its 2022-23–2024-25 seasons are graded here.

CF%

Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice

xG

Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts

xGF

On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice