Adam Fantilli
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Surplus value ~$3.5M/yr
Pending restricted free agent (RFA) His contract expires this season, but as a restricted free agent his current team keeps his signing rights and can match rival offers. This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at, not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.
Realizable today Entry-level rights let the team realize about +$845K of this as signable/tradeable surplus; the rest is locked-in cost control — real value the team enjoys but can't directly cash out while he's signed this cheap.
Track record Judged as-of — with only the model and data available each season — this deal has returned +$2.2M over 2 seasons through 2024-25. See how past calls held up →
+0.03 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$2.2M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Adam Fantilli has delivered 0.03 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Moderate-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Logan Cooley +$806K
- Matvei Michkov +$899K
- Jimmy Snuggerud +$689K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$845K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an entry-level contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Logan Cooley $950K +$806K
- Matvei Michkov $950K +$899K
- Jimmy Snuggerud $950K +$689K
- Will Smith $950K +$963K
- Zach Benson $950K +$1.1M
- Connor Bedard $950K +$1.2M
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Adam at age 21.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
How this deal's surplus has accumulated — each elapsed season judged as-of,
scored with only the model and data available that season (no hindsight) and priced at the
player's age that year. This retrospective runs through 2024-25; the
current-season verdict is shown above. The waterfall builds the running total left to right; the subtotal below is a tally to date, not a forecast. Single-season value is noisy, and early-year
deficits partly reflect a lower salary cap — the same AAV was a smaller share of
the cap then — while the model tends to underprice an elite player's early-career
season, so read the early seasons with extra caution.
Partial record: part of this deal falls outside our as-of coverage, so only its 2023-24–2024-25 seasons are graded here.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 24 | 35 | 59 | 18.9 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 31 | 23 | 54 | 17.5 |
| 2023-24 | 49 | 12 | 15 | 27 | 15.7 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 51.8 | 27.1 | 102.7 |
| 2024-25 | 46.9 | 21.8 | 69.2 |
| 2023-24 | 46.6 | 11.3 | 39.4 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Usage vs. Value
Usage vs. Value
Big minutes, modest number.
Among forwards this season, Adam's even-strength ice time ranks in the 96th percentile, while our value score puts him at 81. That's a gap of +15 — the coach is leaning in harder than our number.
- 5v5 TOI/GP
- 15:27
- Usage percentile
- 96
- Value score
- 81
- Primary PP usage
- 13%
- Primary PK usage
- 1%
Where even-strength ice time and our value score disagree — descriptive, not a verdict. Our number doesn't yet adjust for role or power-play usage.
Ranked #20 on the forwards Usage vs. Value board. Usage is even-strength (5v5) ice time per game.
The value score is percentiled across the full position group, while the deployment percentile is taken over the eligible subset — the two aren't measured over the identical population.