Cole Sillinger
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Within the model's margin
The cap hit falls inside the fair-value range below, so the model can't resolve which way this contract leans.
Fair-value range $840K – $4.0M
Open-market value $2.5M what a UFA with the same on-ice profile would command. The verdict above uses the status-adjusted figure ($2.2M), which reflects the RFA discount the CBA gives the team. Both figures are ratings, not signing-price forecasts — see the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.
+0.01 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$919K
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Cole Sillinger has delivered 0.01 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
- Tyson Foerster −$1.7M
- Emil Heineman +$858K
- Will Cuylle −$1.4M
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, −$63K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an RFA (restricted) contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Tyson Foerster $3.8M −$1.7M
- Emil Heineman $1.1M +$858K
- Will Cuylle $3.9M −$1.4M
- Bobby Brink $1.5M +$738K
- Jake Neighbours $3.8M −$1.1M
- Cole Perfetti $3.3M −$593K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Cole at age 23.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
No as-of track record for this deal yet — a leakage-free record needs at least two seasons graded as-of (coverage runs through 2024-25). The current-season verdict is above.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 8 | 25 | 33 | 15.2 |
| 2024-25 | 66 | 11 | 22 | 33 | 16.9 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 16.1 |
| 2022-23 | 64 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 13.3 |
| 2021-22 | 79 | 16 | 15 | 31 | 13.7 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 50.4 | 14.2 | 55.7 |
| 2024-25 | 44.6 | 11.4 | 45.5 |
| 2023-24 | 47.9 | 15.4 | 51.4 |
| 2022-23 | 44.2 | 9.1 | 32.2 |
| 2021-22 | 47.9 | 16.8 | 50.5 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice