← Back to leaderboard
STL

Robby Fabbri

St. Louis Blues C Age 30 UFA

2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026

$775K AAV
1 Years Left
UFA Expiry

Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.

30 Value Score
30th percentile among forwards
Verdict Low sample

Not enough games yet to value this contract

Career ledger 2015-16 onward · 9 seasons in window

−0.02 cap-years of deficit ≈ −$2.6M

Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Robby Fabbri has cost 0.02 cap-years more than he's delivered across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.

Career still active — this total will keep moving.

Moderate-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.

Why this verdict

Why this verdict

Where this contract sits vs. the market

Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.

Pay, % of cap
← lower talent higher talent →
Cap hit $775K Market rate $1.3M +$521K vs. the open market

The page’s headline verdict, +$271K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.

Structurally similar active deals

This contract sits in the Veteran depth region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):

Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.

Career Trajectory
VALUE SCORE050100PAY DELTA+$3.1M−$3.1M2015-162018-192020-212022-232024-252025-26
Outlook

Outlook

Aging Curve

Past his peak window

Production index for forwards. The dot marks Robby at age 30.

Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.

0.250.500.751.0182226303437
Full stats

Full stats

Career xG IMPACT/60 -0.3

On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.

Production

Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.

SeasonGPGAPTOI
2025-262123511.8
2024-2544881616.2
2023-246818143212.9
2022-2328791616.0
2021-225617133017.3
2020-21301081817.3
2019-206115173216.1
2018-193224612.7
2016-175111182915.6
2015-167218193713.3
On-ice & expected

On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.

SeasonCF%xGxGF
2025-2644.53.79.2
2024-2542.18.430.0
2023-2442.415.453.8
2022-2337.96.021.3
2021-2247.215.856.2
2020-2144.46.323.9
2019-2044.712.347.1
2018-1947.15.119.7
2016-1751.910.035.0
2015-1652.313.344.0
CF%
Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
xG
Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
xGF
On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Playoff track record

Playoff track record

Limited playoff sample

Caliber-adjusted +1.06/60 points/60 vs a player of his regular-season caliber
Raw vs regular season +0.68/60 2.57 playoff · 1.89 regular-season pts/60

30 playoff games · 2 postseasons

Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.