CAR

Frederik Andersen

Carolina Hurricanes G Age 36 UFA

2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026

$2.8M AAV

1 Years Left

UFA Expiry

Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.

61 Value Score

61st percentile among goalies

Verdict Full-season sample

Around fair value

Goalie value is volatile year to year, so we don't headline a hard dollar figure on goalie contracts.

$0 $7.0M

$2.8M Cap Hit 2.6% of cap

$3.3M Modeled est.

Fair-value range $840K – $6.1M

Pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at. It is not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.

Career ledger 2014-15 onward · 11 seasons in window

−0.18 cap-years of deficit ≈ −$15.0M

Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Frederik Andersen has cost 0.18 cap-years more than he's delivered across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.

Partial history: this counts only seasons from 2014-15 on. Frederik Andersen's earlier years — including any cheap entry-level and prime seasons — are before our data window and are not in this total.

Why this verdict

Where this contract sits vs. the market

Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 211 comparable goaltending deals. The line is the going rate at each value-score level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.

Pay, % of cap

← lower value score higher value score →

Cap hit $2.8M Market rate $3.5M +$778K vs. the open market

The page’s headline verdict, +$566K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.

Goaltending value repeats far less year to year than skater talent, so the goalie market is noisier and the curve deliberately flatter; read a goalie’s position loosely.

Career Trajectory

Reading this verdict

The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.

Outlook

Contract Outlook — Projected 1 season · 2026-27–2026-27

Future contract years valued by aging the player's current form forward against a projected salary cap — projections, not measurements. Each year carries a calibrated low–high range beneath its projected value — wider the further out the year runs and skewed downward to reflect players who leave the league. Confidence drops the further out they go, and the least predictable cases (elite players, goalies) show a wide insufficient comparable signings band rather than a precise figure. See the methodology.

This is a value trajectory, not a signing-price forecast — it does not apply the same-year discount the Free-Agent board uses for market timing and age risk. If a season below is also this player's free-agent year, expect the two pages to disagree; both are answering different questions.

Season	Cap Hit	Proj. Fair Value	Verdict
2026-27	$1.0M	$5.3M insufficient comparable signings	Leaning underpaid	near-term projection

Aging Curve

Past his peak window

Production index for goalies. The dot marks Frederik at age 36.

Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.

Full stats

Season Stats

Production

Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.

Season	GP	Saves	GA	SV%	GAA
2025-26	35	742	107	0.874	3.05
2024-25	22	491	55	0.899	2.50
2023-24	16	382	28	0.932	1.84
2022-23	34	767	82	0.903	2.48
2021-22	52	1320	111	0.922	2.17
2020-21	24	598	70	0.895	2.96
2019-20	52	1434	143	0.909	2.85
2018-19	60	1796	162	0.917	2.77
2017-18	66	2029	182	0.918	2.81
2016-17	66	1883	169	0.918	2.67
2015-16	43	998	88	0.919	2.30
2014-15	54	1313	123	0.914	2.38
2013-14	28	723	60	0.923	2.29

On-ice & expected

Model-based shot-quality estimates — what an average goalie would have allowed.

Season	GSAx	xGA
2025-26	-4.8	101.1
2024-25	7.2	62.0
2023-24	10.7	38.7
2022-23	-8.0	74.0
2021-22	28.0	138.7
2020-21	-8.6	60.8
2019-20	-10.3	132.3
2018-19	5.5	169.5
2017-18	-5.0	177.0
2016-17	8.2	176.2
2015-16	-0.7	87.3
2014-15	-2.3	109.2
2013-14	6.3	62.2

SV%: Save percentage
GAA: Goals against average
GSAx: Goals saved above expected
xGA: Expected goals against — model-implied shot quality faced