Marcus Hogberg
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Not enough games yet to value this contract
+0.09 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$7.8M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Marcus Hogberg has delivered 0.09 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 211 comparable goaltending deals. The line is the going rate at each value-score level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$726K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
Goaltending value repeats far less year to year than skater talent, so the goalie market is noisier and the curve deliberately flatter; read a goalie’s position loosely.
Outlook
Outlook
Past his peak window
Production index for goalies. The dot marks Marcus at age 31.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
No as-of track record for this deal yet — a leakage-free record needs at least two seasons graded as-of (coverage runs through 2024-25). The current-season verdict is above.
Full stats
Full stats
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | Saves | GA | SV% | GAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0.714 | 8.90 |
| 2024-25 | 15 | 294 | 41 | 0.878 | 3.38 |
| 2020-21 | 14 | 282 | 40 | 0.876 | 3.74 |
| 2019-20 | 24 | 658 | 70 | 0.904 | 3.12 |
| 2018-19 | 4 | 107 | 14 | 0.884 | 4.09 |
Model-based shot-quality estimates — what an average goalie would have allowed.
| Season | GSAx | xGA |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | -1.1 | 0.9 |
| 2024-25 | -7.4 | 33.1 |
| 2020-21 | -8.2 | 31.8 |
| 2019-20 | 4.2 | 75.1 |
| 2018-19 | -2.2 | 11.8 |
- SV%
- Save percentage
- GAA
- Goals against average
- GSAx
- Goals saved above expected
- xGA
- Expected goals against — model-implied shot quality faced