Arthur Kaliyev
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Not enough games yet to value this contract
+0.11 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$9.5M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Arthur Kaliyev has delivered 0.11 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Max Sasson +$820K
- Philipp Kurashev +$270K
- Elmer Soderblom +$437K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$474K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an RFA (restricted) contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Max Sasson $775K +$820K
- Philipp Kurashev $1.2M +$270K
- Elmer Soderblom $1.1M +$437K
- Marc Gatcomb $900K +$287K
- Curtis Douglas $775K +$510K
- Oskar Bäck $825K +$537K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
Outlook
Outlook
In his peak window
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Arthur at age 25.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10.6 |
| 2024-25 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11.2 |
| 2023-24 | 51 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 11.8 |
| 2022-23 | 56 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 11.7 |
| 2021-22 | 80 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 12.6 |
| 2020-21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14.7 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 55.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| 2024-25 | 48.8 | 1.3 | 5.4 |
| 2023-24 | 57.7 | 8.7 | 32.5 |
| 2022-23 | 53.0 | 11.7 | 35.8 |
| 2021-22 | 58.4 | 14.9 | 55.5 |
| 2020-21 | 18.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Playoff track record
Playoff track record
Not enough playoff games to assess.
Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.