Evander Kane
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Overpaid by ~$3.1M/yr
Fair value prices on-ice production only — it excludes a no-movement or no-trade clause, franchise and marketing value, and the premium teams pay for term itself. An overpay on production alone here can still be a sound allocation. How fair value works.
Fair-value range $840K – $3.3M
Pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at. It is not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.
−0.26 cap-years of deficit ≈ −$20.4M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Evander Kane has cost 0.26 cap-years more than he's delivered across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Partial history: this counts only seasons from 2014-15 on. Evander Kane's earlier years — including any cheap entry-level and prime seasons — are before our data window and are not in this total.
- Jonathan Marchessault −$3.3M
- Noel Acciari +$320K
- Erik Haula −$828K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, −$3.1M/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Veteran depth region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Jonathan Marchessault $5.5M −$3.3M
- Noel Acciari $2.0M +$320K
- Erik Haula $3.1M −$828K
- Nino Niederreiter $4.0M −$2.0M
- Jaden Schwartz $5.5M −$3.2M
- Adam Lowry $3.3M −$1.2M
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.
Outlook
Outlook
Past his peak window
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Evander at age 34.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
No as-of track record for this deal yet — a leakage-free record needs at least two seasons graded as-of (coverage runs through 2024-25). The current-season verdict is above.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 71 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 16.4 |
| 2023-24 | 77 | 24 | 20 | 44 | 16.8 |
| 2022-23 | 41 | 16 | 12 | 28 | 18.7 |
| 2021-22 | 43 | 22 | 17 | 39 | 19.5 |
| 2020-21 | 56 | 22 | 27 | 49 | 20.2 |
| 2019-20 | 64 | 26 | 21 | 47 | 19.5 |
| 2018-19 | 75 | 30 | 26 | 56 | 18.4 |
| 2017-18 | 78 | 29 | 25 | 54 | 19.6 |
| 2016-17 | 70 | 28 | 15 | 43 | 19.2 |
| 2015-16 | 65 | 20 | 15 | 35 | 21.0 |
| 2014-15 | 37 | 10 | 12 | 22 | 19.3 |
| 2013-14 | 63 | 19 | 22 | 41 | 20.3 |
| 2012-13 | 48 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 20.5 |
| 2011-12 | 74 | 30 | 27 | 57 | 17.5 |
| 2010-11 | 73 | 19 | 24 | 43 | 17.9 |
| 2009-10 | 66 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 14.0 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 47.3 | 16.4 | 59.9 |
| 2023-24 | 52.0 | 27.3 | 74.3 |
| 2022-23 | 50.9 | 16.9 | 48.1 |
| 2021-22 | 52.6 | 19.9 | 64.8 |
| 2020-21 | 49.0 | 22.6 | 69.2 |
| 2019-20 | 50.3 | 25.3 | 69.7 |
| 2018-19 | 56.2 | 27.7 | 82.7 |
| 2017-18 | 50.6 | 32.2 | 85.4 |
| 2016-17 | 47.6 | 21.3 | 60.7 |
| 2015-16 | 50.6 | 21.8 | 65.1 |
| 2014-15 | 52.9 | 11.9 | 31.2 |
| 2013-14 | 51.5 | 24.6 | 63.9 |
| 2012-13 | 48.9 | 17.9 | 49.5 |
| 2011-12 | 52.3 | 27.7 | 73.5 |
| 2010-11 | 49.4 | 21.1 | 62.8 |
| 2009-10 | 48.4 | — | 34.8 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Usage vs. Value
Usage vs. Value
Big minutes, modest number.
Among forwards this season, Evander's even-strength ice time ranks in the 83rd percentile, while our value score puts him at 55. That's a gap of +28 — the coach is leaning in harder than our number.
- 5v5 TOI/GP
- 14:17
- Usage percentile
- 83
- Value score
- 55
- Primary PP usage
- 9%
- Primary PK usage
- 0%
Where even-strength ice time and our value score disagree — descriptive, not a verdict. Our number doesn't yet adjust for role or power-play usage.
Ranked #6 on the forwards Usage vs. Value board. Usage is even-strength (5v5) ice time per game.
The value score is percentiled across the full position group, while the deployment percentile is taken over the eligible subset — the two aren't measured over the identical population.
Playoff track record
Playoff track record
About as expected for his caliber (47th pct)
Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.