Hendrix Lapierre
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Surplus value ~$1.2M/yr
Pending restricted free agent (RFA) His contract expires this season, but as a restricted free agent his current team keeps his signing rights and can match rival offers. This is a rating, priced in dollars — what the model rates his on-ice value at, not a forecast of what he'll sign for. See the projected signing price on the Free-Agent board.
Realizable today Entry-level rights let the team realize about −$10K of this as signable/tradeable surplus; the rest is locked-in cost control — real value the team enjoys but can't directly cash out while he's signed this cheap.
Availability adjustment −2% avg games played below league mean — see methodology.
+0.05 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$4.1M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Hendrix Lapierre has delivered 0.05 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Zakhar Bardakov −$27K
- Dominic James −$52K
- Marat Khusnutdinov +$25K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 1082 comparable forward deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, −$10K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an entry-level contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Zakhar Bardakov $868K −$27K
- Dominic James $910K −$52K
- Marat Khusnutdinov $925K +$25K
- Nikita Nesterenko $813K +$28K
- Noah Laba $870K −$30K
- Mikael Pyyhtia $775K +$65K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
The range reflects pricing-model error, not measurement — fair value is a modeled estimate. The sample badge reflects games played, not dollar accuracy.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for forwards. The dot marks Hendrix at age 24.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
Full stats
Full stats
Limited career 5v5 sample — a teammate-adjusted (RAPM) impact needs more ice time than this player has logged, so we don't show a point estimate yet. It appears once career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 74 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 8.8 |
| 2024-25 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 9.8 |
| 2023-24 | 51 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 11.4 |
| 2021-22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9.6 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 54.3 | 7.0 | 29.2 |
| 2024-25 | 50.5 | 2.4 | 10.7 |
| 2023-24 | 45.9 | 5.8 | 26.0 |
| 2021-22 | 41.1 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Usage vs. Value
Usage vs. Value
Limited minutes, strong number.
Among forwards this season, Hendrix's even-strength ice time ranks in the 1st percentile, while our value score puts him at 49. That's a gap of −48 — the coach is leaning out relative to our number.
- 5v5 TOI/GP
- 8:37
- Usage percentile
- 1
- Value score
- 49
- Primary PP usage
- 2%
- Primary PK usage
- 0%
Where even-strength ice time and our value score disagree — descriptive, not a verdict. Our number doesn't yet adjust for role or power-play usage.
Ranked #14 on the forwards Usage vs. Value board. Usage is even-strength (5v5) ice time per game.
The value score is percentiled across the full position group, while the deployment percentile is taken over the eligible subset — the two aren't measured over the identical population.
Playoff track record
Playoff track record
Not enough playoff games to assess.
Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.