Vincent Iorio
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Not enough games yet to value this contract
+0.03 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$2.3M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Vincent Iorio has delivered 0.03 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- David Jiricek −$78K
- Seamus Casey −$110K
- Isaiah George +$2K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 613 comparable defense deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, +$26K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an entry-level contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- David Jiricek $918K −$78K
- Seamus Casey $950K −$110K
- Isaiah George $838K +$2K
- Logan Mailloux $875K −$35K
- Kevin Korchinski $918K −$78K
- Abram Wiebe $950K −$110K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for defensemen. The dot marks Vincent at age 23.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
Full stats
Full stats
Limited career 5v5 sample — a teammate-adjusted (RAPM) impact needs more ice time than this player has logged, so we don't show a point estimate yet. It appears once career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15.7 |
| 2023-24 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2022-23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14.3 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 44.8 | 0.5 | 14.5 |
| 2023-24 | 44.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 2022-23 | 39.1 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice
Playoff track record
Playoff track record
Not enough playoff games to assess.
Descriptive only — not part of Value Score or Fair Value. Playoff samples are small and team-dependent; shown for the record.