Kevin Korchinski
2025-26· Data as of July 27, 2026
Status derived from CBA rules; edge cases (Group 6 UFA, 10.2(c), 35+ contracts) may be misclassified. Years remaining are not yet tracked.
Not enough games yet to value this contract
Track record Judged as-of — with only the model and data available each season — this deal has returned +$1.5M over 2 seasons through 2024-25. See how past calls held up →
+0.02 cap-years of surplus ≈ +$1.5M
Judged as-of — each season priced with only the model and data available then — Kevin Korchinski has delivered 0.02 cap-years more value than he's been paid across our data window. One cap-year = a full season's salary-cap ceiling.
Career still active — this total will keep moving.
Low-confidence total — thin or short seasons drive a large share of the swing, so read it with caution.
- Isaiah George +$2K
- David Jiricek −$78K
- Seamus Casey −$110K
Why this verdict
Why this verdict
Where this contract sits vs. the market
Each dot is a real free-agent signing (2015-2026): 613 comparable defense deals. The line is the going rate at each talent level, the market convention we price against. Real signings scatter around it; comparable players don’t all sign for the identical number.
The page’s headline verdict, −$78K/yr, refines this by adjusting the market rate for age, contract term, and restricted-free-agent status. The plot compares to the raw market curve; the verdict adjusts it.
This player is on an entry-level contract. Part of the gap below the curve is CBA cost control (teams pay restricted players below open-market value by rule), not evidence of a market inefficiency.
Structurally similar active deals
This contract sits in the Young / bridge region of the contract map. These are the active contracts whose shape is nearest to it, closest in spend, term, age, and role (not how they aged):
- Isaiah George $838K +$2K
- David Jiricek $918K −$78K
- Seamus Casey $950K −$110K
- Tom Willander $950K −$110K
- Zeev Buium $967K −$126K
- Vincent Iorio $814K +$26K
Comparable by the shape of the deal, not by team or playing style. Archetypes are broad regions on a continuum; a deal near a boundary is genuinely in-between.
Outlook
Outlook
Approaching his peak
Production index for defensemen. The dot marks Kevin at age 22.
Empirical production-by-age index (delta-method WAR fit, 2010-11+). Illustrative of typical aging; the dollar model prices age with a separate, softer decline.
How this deal's surplus has accumulated — each elapsed season judged as-of,
scored with only the model and data available that season (no hindsight) and priced at the
player's age that year. This retrospective runs through 2024-25; the
current-season verdict is shown above. The waterfall builds the running total left to right; the subtotal below is a tally to date, not a forecast. Single-season value is noisy, and early-year
deficits partly reflect a lower salary cap — the same AAV was a smaller share of
the cap then — while the model tends to underprice an elite player's early-career
season, so read the early seasons with extra caution.
Partial record: part of this deal falls outside our as-of coverage, so only its 2023-24–2024-25 seasons are graded here.
Full stats
Full stats
On-ice expected-goals impact per 60 — RAPM-adjusted (teammate- and competition-adjusted) where career 5v5 ice time clears the reliability floor, a raw on-off xG differential otherwise. Not wins. The RAPM figure is career-pooled (one value across seasons); the on-off fallback shows the most recent season.
Counted outcomes — totals and rates that carry shooting and goaltending luck.
| Season | GP | G | A | P | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13.6 |
| 2024-25 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17.1 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 19.6 |
On-ice shot shares and modeled expected goals — these stabilize faster than goal totals, but xG is an estimate, not a count.
| Season | CF% | xG | xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 47.0 | 0.3 | 5.9 |
| 2024-25 | 44.7 | 0.6 | 9.6 |
| 2023-24 | 44.6 | 3.2 | 59.8 |
- CF%
- Corsi-for percentage — share of shot attempts while on the ice
- xG
- Individual expected goals from the player's own shot attempts
- xGF
- On-ice expected goals — team's xG while this player is on the ice